Why Home Prices Aren’t Actually Flat

Are home prices really flat, or is there more to the story?

While national headlines love the word “flat,” the reality is far more complex. Home prices are shifting in both directions — and where you live makes all the difference.

What the Latest Data Really Shows

You’ve probably heard that home prices have leveled off. But when you look at the data, that “flat” label doesn’t hold up everywhere.

According to the latest data from ResiClub and Zillow, home prices in half of the 50 largest metros are still rising, while the other half are softening slightly. The graph below shows how the split plays out across the country:

That’s the truth hiding behind the headlines. On average, prices might look flat nationally, but that average hides the real story — how much local markets vary.

Why Price Trends Are So Different Across Markets

A key reason for the divide is inventory — how many homes are available for sale in a given area. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains it this way:

“Price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared, while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

That means areas with more new listings and slower buyer demand are seeing some softening. But markets where inventory remains low — like much of the Houston metro and The Woodlands area — are holding steady or still rising.

When you average those opposing forces, it looks like prices are flat. But in reality, local dynamics are driving very different outcomes.

Don’t Let “Flat” Headlines Fool You

If you’re seeing reports about small declines, keep in mind that many of those dips are happening in places where home prices skyrocketed in recent years. Nationally, prices climbed roughly 50% over the past five years — and even more in some of the fastest-growing markets.

So, a modest 3–5% pullback in certain areas doesn’t erase those long-term gains. Most homeowners are still sitting on substantial equity and remain well ahead on home value compared to pre-pandemic levels.

And according to leading economists, there’s no national downturn expected ahead. Market fundamentals — especially limited housing supply and steady buyer demand — continue to support price stability.

What This Means If You’re Buying

If you’re planning to buy a home, understanding your local price trend is key. It influences how you negotiate, how quickly you need to act, and even how you plan your budget.

• In areas where prices are still climbing: Waiting could cost you more down the line as appreciation continues.

• In areas where prices are softening: You may have more leverage to negotiate on repairs, closing costs, or price.

Knowing your local data helps you make a confident, informed move — whether that means moving quickly or negotiating strategically.

What This Means If You’re Selling

For sellers, knowing your local trend is just as important. It guides how you price your home, how long it may take to sell, and how much room there is for negotiation.

• If your market is still appreciating: You may have room to hold firm on price and expect strong offers.

• If prices are easing: You’ll want to price competitively from the start and be prepared to negotiate to attract today’s buyers.

Homes that are priced right are still selling — and often faster than expected — especially in markets like The Woodlands, where demand remains strong.

The Real Story Is Always Local

National numbers are useful for context, but they rarely capture the nuances of your neighborhood. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why working with a local expert matters more than ever. A knowledgeable agent can interpret the trends specific to your zip code — and help you make smart decisions based on what’s actually happening, not what’s trending in national headlines.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices “flat” might grab attention, but they don’t tell the full story. Every market has its own rhythm — and The Woodlands is no exception.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what’s happening in your neighborhood right now?

If you’re ready for real, local insight into home prices in The Woodlands, let’s connect. I’ll help you understand how current trends affect your plans and guide you toward your next move with confidence.

The McClung Group – The Woodlands, TX
Your Realtors for Life